Merkel departure would have ‘major impact’ on EU says Butikofer
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The German Chancellor will retire from German politics next month after 16 years in power. But according to the latest Forsa poll for RTL television, Angela Merkel’s CDU successor, Armin Laschet, is increasingly losing his chance of taking her seat in September.
According to the poll, compared to the previous week, the Union has fallen by three percentage points to 23 percent.
The SPD gained three percentage points and achieved the best value since April 2018 with 19 percent.
The FDP lost one point, the Left gained one percentage point.
Nothing changed for the Greens, the AfD and the other smaller parties.
The SPD has crept up within one percentage point of the Greens.
The CDU / CSU, which had reached 36 percent in January, is now only three percentage points ahead of the Greens and four percentage points ahead the SPD.
If the new Bundestag were elected now, the parties could expect the following result:
CDU / CSU 23 percent (2017 Bundestag election 32.9 percent),
Green 20 percent (8.9 percent),
SPD 19 percent (20.5 percent),
FDP 12 percent (10.7 percent),
AfD 10 percent (12.6 percent),
Left 7 percent (9.2 percent).
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The poll also found that 9 percent of people would choose one of the other parties (5.2 percent).
At 26 percent, the number of non-voters and undecided people is higher than the number of non-voters in the 2017 Bundestag election (23.8 percent).
When it comes to Chancellor preference, the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz gained five percentage points compared to the previous week.
The Union chancellor candidate Armin Laschet lost another three percentage points, and the Green candidate Annalena Baerbock also achieved two percentage points less than a week ago.
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If the Germans could choose their chancellor directly, 26 percent would currently vote for Scholz, 16 percent for Baerbock and 12 percent for Laschet.
Laschet cannot even count on the supporters of his party: only 39 percent of the Union supporters would currently elect the CDU leader as chancellor. Of those who voted for the Union in 2017, only 24 percent would vote for Laschet.
From the point of view of many voters, Markus Söder would be the better candidate for the Union. 40 percent would vote for him in a direct election for Chancellor – that’s more than three times as many as for Laschet. Söder would also be attractive to other parties: 27 percent of the voters of other parties can imagine electing him as chancellor. This also applies to 44 percent of the FDP voters, 39 percent of those undecided and 55 percent of the Union voters from 2017 who currently no longer want to vote for the CDU or CSU.
Two-thirds of Germans (68 percent) blame Armin Laschet in particular for the bad values of the Union parties. Only 9 percent are of the opinion that Söder caused the CDU / CSU’s losses through his criticism of the sister party’s election campaign and the candidate for chancellor.
A total of 80 percent of the CDU and 90 percent of the CSU supporters believe Laschet is responsible for the Union losses.
Against the background of the weak Union values, half of those eligible to vote (50 percent) are of the opinion that Armin Laschet should forgo his candidacy for Chancellor in favour of Markus Söder.
Some 35 percent think he should hold on to his candidacy.
And 59 percent of the CDU supporters and 64 percent of the CSU supporters would think it would be right if Laschet were to let Söder become chancellor.
Forsa surveyed 2,509 voters between August 3 and 9 for the poll.
Additional reporting by Monika Pallenberg
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