Sat. Dec 10th, 2022


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US UK trade: New presidency could be DISASTROUS for US UK deal – ‘difficult negotiations’

3 min read

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Democrat presidential nominee and former Vice President of the Barack Obama administration, Joe Biden, has already sent a stark warning to the UK in regards to Brexit. After Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the Internal Market Bill, which would essentially override the withdrawal agreement signed into law between the UK and EU, Mr Biden took to Twitter to have his say. He tweeted: “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland become a casualty of Brexit.

“Any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return or a hard border. Period.”

While Mr Biden has made his feelings towards Brexit and the UK’s behaviour very clear, many think that a Trump presidency would be better for trade relations between the two states.

However, Head of Politics and International Relations at the London Metropolitan University, Dr Andrew Moran, told a Trump presidency wouldn’t be much better.

Dr Moran explained: “It would be naive to suggest that a post-Brexit deal with Trump would be a better one than with Biden. Both will negotiate hard and put America’s interests first.”

Professor Moran said a Trump administration would likely push the UK to abandon EU food and farming regulations in a bid to open up more foreign competition and wider access to American product markets.

This is where fears of American chlorinated chickens and genetically modified food being sold into British supermarkets comes into the picture.

However, Dr Moran doesn’t deny a trade deal with Mr Biden is likely to be more reliable given Mr Trump’s history of walking away from agreed deals.

Dr Moran said: “What is clear is that Biden and Democrats in the US Congress are concerned about the impact of any trade deal on the Good Friday Agreement, particularly as the US was one of the guarantors of peace in Northern Ireland.

“Even if Trump won, it is unlikely that any deal he negotiates that is seen as undermining the Good Friday Agreement will get through a Congress controlled by Democrats.”

Equally concerning for Prime Minister Boris Johnson is that Mr Biden is somewhat of a Brexit-sceptic who doesn’t seem to view trade deals as a priority.

Just like President Obama, Mr Biden is much more likely to develop closer relationships with the EU than with Britain.

Dr Moran added: “Strategically and economically, it makes sense to deal with an organisation that represents 27 European countries, so we may see America’s focus shift more towards Germany and France, rather than reigniting the special relationship.”

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No matter the outcome of the November 3 election, it is bound to be deeply divisive on many counts.

Dr Moran said the election results next week will “matter deeply to the Prime Minister”.

He explained: “If Biden wins, and the Democrats make sweeping gains in Congress, the UK may find itself in the new year facing difficult diplomatic negotiations with the USA, as well as with the EU.”

This sentiment is especially heightened during the recent climate as, if a no-deal Brexit occurs, it will be in the middle of a global pandemic and financial recession for many countries.

Dr Moran said, however, that even if Mr Trump wins it won’t necessarily give the UK what it’s looking for.

He continued: “If Trump wins, it doesn’t necessarily follow that Johnson will get everything he hoped for. In fact, he may be forced to accept whatever he can get.”

The UK formally quit the EU at 11pm Greenwich Mean Time on January 31, 2020.

Britain is now embroiled in an 11-month transition period, meaning the UK is still bound to the Bloc’s rule until terms for Brexit are negotiated and agreed.

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