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Scottish Independence polls: Could Scotland QUIT the UK? Latest polls

4 min read

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The indyref campaign in 2014 was a bitter and hugely divisive affair, with communities and families split on whether to break the centuries-old union. The final vote seemed decisive at the time, with 55 percent voting against independence and 45 percent voting in favour. But despite the last vote being fresh in collective political memory, renewed calls for another pop at independence are garnering significant attention, after polls show the majority of Scots want a break from the union.

The Prime Minister has received nothing short of a frosty reception from the Scottish Government following his arrival in Edinburgh earlier today.

Nicola Sturgeon has argued that the Prime Minister’s visit strengthens the case for Scotland leaving the union, and unfortunately for the Prime Minister, the numbers back her up.

She tweeted this morning: “I welcome the PM to Scotland today. One of the key arguments for independence is the ability of Scotland to take our own decisions, rather than having our future decided by politicians we didn’t vote for, taking us down a path we haven’t chosen. His presence highlights that.”

Ian Blackford, SNP’s Westminster leader, also suggested Mr Johnson’s trip would backfire, telling the Today programme: “The days of telling Scotland that we are either too wee, too poor or too stupid really are over.”

There is little doubt that tensions between the Scottish and English powers have grown considerably in recent years, exacerbated by Brexit and further fuelled recently by coronavirus.

READ MORE

  • ‘Don’t challenge Scotland!’ Sturgeon’s stark warning to PM exposed

Now, the polls are demonstrating quite a different picture from the one painted by the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014.

Poll guru Sir John Curtice believes that for the first time in Scottish history, the ‘Yes’ side is the favourite to win should Scotland host a second independence referendum.

Panelbase studies published in June and July found 54 per cent of Scots now back a Yes vote, a five-point surge since March.

Following a series of recent surveys around the prospect of another independence referendum, support for the movement is at an all-time high, and the First Minister is also taking a commanding lead for the SNP into next year’s Holyrood elections.

“One has to say,” Sir John concluded, “this is the longest period of time over which we’ve had support for Yes averaging ahead of support for No.”

Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum?

Nicola Sturgeon and her party do not miss a trick when it comes to pushing the case for another shot at independence.

The case is pushed at every available turn by Ms Sturgeon, even when the pressing matters of coronavirus, severe economic downturn and job losses are unlikely to go away.

The requirement to expend so much political energy on the cause despite the immediate concerns of citizens and politicians alike does seem to be working.

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  • ‘Don’t challenge Scotland!’ Sturgeon’s stark warning to PM exposed

Boris Johnson’s Government’s coronavirus response has not received the ‘world-beating’ reception many of its ministers keep repeating it has: plagued by inaction at the start, complacency, delays in lockdown and getting PPE equipment to hospitals, confusing messages, breaches of lockdown by Government ministers and advisers, poor roll-out of test-and-tracing and now conflicting advice on where and when facemasks must be worn.

Wherever you sit in the independence debate, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that Mr Johnson’s behaviour in recent months has swiftly strengthened Ms Sturgeon’s hand.

But a second referendum is down to Westminister’s official approval – something which Ms Sturgeon has filed for numerous times.

In March 2017, the day before Article 50 was triggered, Sturgeon formally requested the consent of Westminster to hold another referendum.

But the former Prime Minister Theresa May declined, arguing that “now is not the time”.

The First Minister renewed calls for a second vote in April 2019, announcing a new process for deciding Scotland’s constitutional future.

Mr Johnson’s refusal to hear a case for separation, this approval will be very difficult to get any time soon.

Labour also ruled out any prospect of another referendum in their 2019 manifesto.

Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish Parliament is not allowed to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”.

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